An examination of EU trade disintegration scenarios

Karen Jackson, Oleksandr Shepotylo

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


This paper demonstrates the welfare implications of the differential disintegration of the EU. Using a structural gravity approach, our estimates suggest that the rest of the EU countries have much more to lose from the disintegration of the EU compared to a disorderly Brexit. At the same time, neighbouring high-income and middle-income countries, such as Bosnia and Herzegovina and Norway, are expected to benefit from EU disintegration under some scenarios because trade would be diverted from EU countries.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)2-20
Number of pages19
JournalWorld Economy
Issue number1
Early online date9 Oct 2020
Publication statusPublished - Jan 2021

Bibliographical note

This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Jackson, K. and Shepotylo, O. (2020), An examination of EU trade disintegration scenarios. The World Economy. Accepted Author Manuscript, which has been published in final form at  This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance With Wiley Terms and Conditions for self-archiving.


  • Brexit
  • EU
  • gravity model
  • trade policy


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