Early marketing matters: a time-varying parameter approach to persistence modeling

Ernst C. Osinga, Peter S.H. Leeflang, Jaap E. Wieringa

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


Are persistent marketing effects most likely to appear right after the introduction of a product? The authors give an affirmative answer to this question by developing a model that explicitly reports how persistent and transient marketing effects evolve over time. The proposed model provides managers with a valuable tool to evaluate their allocation of marketing expenditures over time. An application of the model to many pharmaceutical products, estimated through (exact initial) Kalman filtering, indicates that both persistent and transient effects occur predominantly immediately after a brand's introduction. Subsequently, the size of the effects declines. The authors theoretically and empirically compare their methodology with methodology based on unit root testing and demonstrate that the need for unit root tests creates difficulties in applying conventional persistence modeling. The authors recommend that marketing models should either accommodate persistent effects that change over time or be applied to mature brands or limited time windows only.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)173-185
Number of pages13
JournalJournal of Marketing Research
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - Feb 2010


  • persistence modeling
  • long-term marketing effectiveness
  • time-varying parameters
  • Kalman filtering
  • pharmaceutical marketing


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