Modeling sheep pox disease from the 1994-1998 epidemic in Evros Prefecture, Greece.

Chrysovalantis Malesios, Nikolaos Demiris, Z Abas, K. Dadousis, T Koutroumanidis

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


Sheep pox is a highly transmissible disease which can cause serious loss of livestock and can therefore have major economic impact. We present data from sheep pox epidemics which occurred between 1994 and 1998. The data include weekly records of infected farms as well as a number of covariates. We implement Bayesian stochastic regression models which, in addition to various explanatory variables like seasonal and environmental/meteorological factors, also contain serial correlation structure based on variants of the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. We take a predictive view in model selection by utilizing deviance-based measures. The results indicate that seasonality and the number of infected farms are important predictors for sheep pox incidence.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1-10
JournalSpatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
Publication statusPublished - Oct 2014

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© 2014, Elsevier. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International


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