Scenario planning: teaching how to anticipate perceived environmental uncertainty within strategy development

Efstathios Tapinos

Research output: Preprint or Working paperWorking paper


Scenario Planning is a strategy tool with growing popularity in both academia and practical situations. Current practices in the teaching of scenario planning are largely based on existing literature which utilises scenario planning to develop strategies for the future, primarily considering the assessment of perceived macro-external environmental uncertainties. However there is a body of literature hitherto ignored by scenario planning researchers, which suggests that Perceived Environmental Uncertainty (PEU) influences micro-external or industrial environmental as well as the internal environment of the organisation. This paper provides a review of the most dominant theories on scenario planning process, demonstrates the need to consider PEU theory within scenario planning and presents how this can be done. The scope of this paper is to enhance the scenario planning process as a tool taught for Strategy Development. A case vignette is developed based on published scenarios to demonstrate the potential utilisation of the proposed process.
Original languageEnglish
Place of PublicationBirmingham (UK)
PublisherAston University
Number of pages25
ISBN (Print)978-1-85449-759-8
Publication statusPublished - Jul 2009

Publication series

NameAston Business School research papers
PublisherAston University

Bibliographical note

© Author


  • teaching
  • scenario planning
  • strategy development
  • perceived environmental uncertainty
  • case study


Dive into the research topics of 'Scenario planning: teaching how to anticipate perceived environmental uncertainty within strategy development'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this